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Now that we’re in the thick of the NBA playoffs, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Featured Game | New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
The Knicks lack most of the flaws that made the Bucks vulnerable to a Heat upset. The Bucks are a dogmatic drop-coverage defense. The Knicks tend to favor drop-coverage, but have the personnel and the coaching staff to adjust once Jimmy Butler forces them to. The Heat finished the series with back-to-back fourth quarter comebacks because the Bucks lacked a fourth-quarter shot-creator. Jalen Brunson certainly fits the bill. The Heat ranked 27th in the NBA in 3-point percentage during the season at 34.4%. They’re leading the playoffs at 45%. They’re due a bit of regression. Without Tyler Herro they lack secondary shot-creation. If we assume they look more like their regular-season selves in this series, the Knicks should be favored comfortably. The Pick: Knicks -4.5
Featured Game | Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors
There are two immutable rules of Game 7 betting that we’re going to cover in this space. The first is the one you’ll hear frequently on Sunday: home teams win roughly 80% of Game 7’s. While the two sides have both won on the other’s court in this series, we can’t ignore the reality here that Sacramento is 25-19 at home this season while Golden State is 12-32 on the road. Sacramento discovered something in Game 6 with their ultra small bench lineups. Golden State has had six games to figure out how to slow down Sacramento’s speedy guards. Nothing has worked. The line is the icing on the cake here. The worst you can do is a push on any Kings victory. The Pick: Kings -1
80% of Game 7’s may be won by the home team, but 100% of Game 7’s are ugly. The last 14 Game 7’s have averaged roughly 193.5 points. The line in this game is 229. Only one of the past 14 Game 7’s has exceeded that figure. In fact, nine of them failed to even reach 200. Yes, this has been an offense-first series, but Game 7’s exist in their own bubble. Players get tense. The first quarter is ugly and the fourth quarter is a slugfest. Trust history over what we’ve seen in this series so far. The Pick: Under 229
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