Columbia Records; Beth Garrabrant
At the 2023 MTV Video Music Awards Taylor Swift and Beyonce are nominated against each other for Artist of the Year, a category where they also face Nicki Minaj, Shakira, Doja Cat, and Karol G. To date, Beyonce is the biggest winner in the history of the VMAs with 29 trophies, but it’s risky to bet against Swift at any fan-voted awards show. Can Beyonce stage an upset in this race? You might remember that 14 years ago a Beyonce vs. Swift contest led to one of the most infamous awards moments in recent history.
Swift is the front-runner for Artist of the Year according to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users, and it’s not hard to see why. She has the most VMA nominations this year (eight). She’s the defending champion for Video of the Year, which she has won more than any other artist (three times). And at another music awards show decided by fans, the American Music Awards, Swift has won Artist of the Year a record seven times. So it’s no wonder she’s predicted to win this year at the VMAs by 22 of our Top 24 Users and 23 of our All-Star Top 24.
But Swift isn’t unbeatable. The last time she was nominated for Artist of the Year at the VMAs, in 2021, she lost to Justin Bieber. And over the course of her career she has won fewer than half as many awards as Beyonce has (Swift has 14 overall). Given Beyonce’s dominance at these music video awards, it’s ironic that she hasn’t produced any visuals to go along with her “Renaissance” era, which explains why this is her only nomination at these VMAs. But that could be a blessing in disguise since it means members of the Bey Hive will only have one place to go to support her, whereas Swift’s support can be spread across multiple categories.
Nevertheless, this looks like one of those vanishingly rare occasions in the music industry when Beyonce can be considered an underdog. Please, no one tell Kanye West.
Be sure to make your MTV Video Music Award predictions so that music executives and top name stars can see how they’re faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. And join in the fierce debate over the VMAs taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.