Analysis | Here’s a roadmap to the biggest partisan gaps in … – The Washington Post

The storied public opinion research firm quizzed Americans about 24 issues and plotted shifts in Democratic and Republican attitudes from 2003, to 2013, to 2022-2023, highlighting how the parties have shifted over 20 years and where they most sharply diverge today.

Does the data back up the notion that Americans are more polarized in 2023 than in 2003?

On a number of issues — like agreeing with the statement “the federal government has too much power” — there was little difference by party two decades ago and a huge gap — in this case, 73 percent of Republicans agree against 31 percent of Democrats — today.

There are “significant — and in some instances, huge — partisan differences” on all 24 issues, Gallup noted. But the changes have not been even across all topics — and on some issues, there’s a pretty wide gap but the parties are trending in the same direction.

Perhaps most interesting is how intensely the parties are diverging in a few areas, because they hint not just at a location but a destination.

Most of the largest gaps won’t exactly stun people fluent in American politics.

• 85 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Americans agreed that “government should ensure that everyone has health care,” while 30 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaners did, for a 55-point chasm.
• There was also a 55-point fissure on “protecting environment has priority over energy development” (81 percent Ds, 26 percent Rs), and 53 points separated the two sides on “gun laws should be stricter,” 84 percent of Democrats/leaners and 31 percent of Republicans/leaners.
• “Worry a great deal or fair amount about global warming” got 87 percent on the left and 35 percent on the right.
• “Abortion should be legal under any circumstance?” Fifty-nine percent of Democrats/leaners said yes against just 12 percent of Republicans/leaners. 

The smallest gap out of the 24 issues was “favorable opinion of Cuba,” which 49 percent of Democrats/leaners agreed with and 35 percent of Republicans/leaners co-signed. That’s just 14 points. (This is also a warning about judging the polling outcomes here by the size of the partisan gap: This got a majority of neither party.)

“Satisfied with state of race relations?” Seventeen-point gap, with 23 percent of Ds/leaners vs 40 percent of Rs/leaners. “Sex between unmarried partners is morally acceptable?” 19 points, Ds/leaners at 82 percent, Rs/leaners at 63 percent (majorities!)

• 88 percent of Democrats/leaners agreed that “divorce is morally acceptable,” against 69 percent of Republicans/leaners (majorities!)
• Having a child out of wedlock? 82 percent on the left, 61 percent on the right (majorities!).

Okay that Cuba number intrigues us

Let’s back up and look at the results for the Cuba question.

For both parties, the number has edged upward since 2003, more sharply for Democrats/leaners between 2003 and 2013, more sharply for Republicans/leaners from 2013 to 2023.

Gallup doesn’t tell us why the numbers shifted. President Barack Obama’s overtures to Cuba came in 2014, which doesn’t dovetail neatly with the change in public opinion. It’s worth noting that a small gap doesn’t automatically translate to majority support.

Check out the trends, though

The gaps between the parties are notable — they provide a good snapshot of our polarization in 2023. But the areas where the differences are growing take us beyond the snapshot and suggest where our politics will be most divisive in the years to come.

• So on race relations, the two parties were basically at 50 percent in 2013 — but Democrats/leaners are down to 23 percent now.
• Half of each of the two parties basically agreed in 2003 that “foreign trade is opportunity for economic growth.” The number hadn’t changed much in 2013. But Democrats are now at 74 percent while Republicans are at 49 percent.
• In 2003 and 2013, more Republicans said they had a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of trust in police — but not by a lot more than Democrats. Now it’s nearly double, 60 percent to 31 percent.

“Democrats’ confidence in the police has plunged in the past decade among heightened sensitivity to racial injustice in policing, while Republicans’ confidence has edged down only slightly,” Gallup said.

More Democrats than Republicans said in 2003 that government had too much power, though both were below 50 percent. The GOP number surged in 2013, under Obama, and now, after covid hit in 2020, sits at 73 percent, against 31 percent for Democrats.

The mythical era of both parties cheerfully making good-faith efforts to find compromises on difficult, divisive issues is mostly that: mythical. But deepening divisions on most of the issues here don’t bode well for simple governing. Or Thanksgiving dinner.

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Ahead of abortion vote, Ohioans weigh making it harder to amend constitution

“[Ohio Republicans] scheduled a special election for Tuesday with just one issue on the ballot: Should constitutional amendments require the support of 60 percent of voters rather than a simple majority? To pass, that measure needs just a simple majority. If it’s approved, future ballot initiatives — including the abortion measure — will need to achieve the new, higher threshold,” Patrick Marley and Rachel Roubein report.

Over 11,000 L.A. workers plan to strike, hoping to ‘shut down’ city

“City of Los Angeles workers are joining the hotel employees, Hollywood actors and TV and movie writers who have walked off their jobs this summer. Thousands of them plan to strike Tuesday, potentially grinding municipal operations to a halt for 24 hours and adding to the flurry of organized labor activity across the city and country,” Anumita Kaur reports.

What to know about EG.5, the most prevalent covid subvariant in the U.S.

“EG.5 has narrowly surpassed other Omicron descendants circulating in the United States and now accounts for the largest proportion of covid cases nationwide, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,” Grace Moon, Niha Masih, Adela Suliman and Fenit Nirappil report.

Lunchtime reads from The Post

Arizona coalition launches effort to get abortion rights on the ballot

“Major abortion rights groups are launching a bid Tuesday to enshrine abortion protections into the Arizona Constitution, setting off a high-stakes battle in a politically divided swing state that was once reliably Republican,” Rachel Roubein and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez report.

Russians tied to Putin or military sidestep sanctions and draw protest

“Despite heavy sanctions intended to isolate Russia over the war in Ukraine, dozens of Russians connected to President Vladimir Putin or the Russian military are still welcome in European Union countries, drawing criticism from politicians and antiwar activists,” Francesca Ebel reports.

Senior State Dept. official visits Niger to negotiate with junta

“Acting deputy secretary of state Victoria Nuland visited the Nigerien capital, Niamey, to try to ‘get some negotiations going, and also to make absolutely clear what is at stake in our relationship and the economic and other kinds of support that we will legally have to cut off if democracy is not restored,’ she told reporters in a phone briefing as she departed the country. ‘These conversations were extremely frank and at times quite difficult,’” Katharine Houreld and Michael Birnbaum report.

The impeachment effort losing steam in the House GOP

“House Republicans once regarded Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas as their easiest impeachment target. Yet even that seems increasingly out of reach,” Politico’s Jordain Carney reports.

• “Centrist Republicans were never quite sold on impeaching the secretary over problems at the border, nor aligned with their colleagues’ belief that Mayorkas lied to lawmakers at a committee hearing. Now, some of the most vocal Republicans pushing to remove him are acknowledging they’re finding GOP skeptics virtually immovable.”

GOP contenders feed voter distrust in courts, schools and military

“As Mr. Trump escalates his attacks on American institutions, focusing his fire on the Justice Department as he faces new criminal charges, his competitors for the Republican nomination have followed his lead,” the New York Times’s Jennifer Medina reports.

• “Several have adopted much of Mr. Trump’s rhetoric sowing broad suspicion about the courts, the F.B.I., the military and schools. As they vie for support in a primary dominated by Mr. Trump, they routinely blast these targets in ways that might have been considered extraordinary, not to mention unthinkably bad politics, just a few years ago.”

Chinese exports fall at steepest pace since February 2020

“China’s exports to the rest of the world tumbled in July, adding to the challenges for the world’s second-largest economy and offering fresh evidence that a drying up of Western demand is hurting Beijing’s attempts to rekindle growth,” the Wall Street Journal’s Stella Yifan Xie reports.

White House to unveil wage rule for federal projects, in win for unions

“Vice President Harris will announce a new rule on Tuesday to bolster union requirements for projects paid for by federal funds, as the Biden administration tries to quell fears among organized labor about the push for clean energy, according to administration officials,” Jeff Stein and Lauren Kaori Gurley report.

Biden, on three-state tour, designates new national monument

“Biden on Tuesday is also designating a vast area as a national monument to safeguard it from uranium mining, which local tribal leaders and environmentalists have said would protect aquifers and water supplies and honor long-standing Native American connections to the land,” Matt Viser and Timothy Puko report.

The cost of refueling your EV battery, visualized

“The bottom line? In all 50 states, it’s cheaper for the everyday American to fill up with electrons — and much cheaper in some regions such as the Pacific Northwest, with low electricity rates and high gas prices,” Michael J. Coren reports.

Dwindling Blue Dog Democrats look to stage a comeback for moderates

“Not fitting squarely into a box has often been a lonely endeavor for [Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine)]. But following a pair of shocking wins last year in reliably conservative districts often ignored by Democrats, freshmen Reps. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) have joined forces with Golden in taking over the once-powerful Blue Dog Coalition,” Marianna Sotomayor reports.

• “The Blue Dog Coalition at its peak boasted 70 members, made up of more moderate Democrats who focused on fiscal stability, national security and working across the aisle to reach common goals — ideals that often led them to spar with the majority of their colleagues who have slowly inched further to the political left. Now, the three young leaders are hoping they can recruit more like-minded candidates, reestablish the power of the group now made up of just 10 lawmakers and challenge the idea that Democrats’ fundamental values can attract only a particular set of voters.”

DeSantis targets foes with help from unconventional trio: His children

“The Florida governor is prominently featuring his three kids in his 2024 campaign and doing so in an unusually political way, observers said — not just regaling voters with parenting stories but also weaving them into sharp attacks on his frequent targets of criticism and referencing them as he taps into conservative angst about what kids learn about race, gender and sexual orientation in the classroom and beyond,” Hannah Knowles reports.

• “It’s nothing new for DeSantis, who in 2018 famously broadcast his allegiance to then-President Donald Trump with a gubernatorial primary ad that showed him reading Trump’s book to one child and teaching another to ‘build the wall’ with blocks. It’s also familiar terrain for a candidate who often appears more comfortable turning personal discussions into policy talks and embraces combative exchanges targeting rivals and critics on the left.”

At noon, Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.

Biden will discuss the Inflation Reduction Act and climate change at 2 p.m. at Historic Red Butte Airfield in Arizona.

At 4:35 p.m., Biden will visit the Grand Canyon.

Biden will leave Arizona for Albuquerque, at 5:20 p.m. where he will participate in a fundraiser at 9 p.m.

Animal actors are on strike, too. These are their stories.

“The human actors aren’t the only performers who are out of work. Jack, a water buffalo who was born on the set of the film ‘Tropic Thunder,’ has been turned out to pasture, where he spends his days chasing away people from a nearby campground who trespass onto his ranch,” Maura Judkis reports.

• “Zora, a calico who works in Atlanta’s fast-growing film industry, is taking cat-food-modeling jobs in Tennessee. Luke and Little John, two actor raccoons, are spending their days outside of Los Angeles, hanging out by the pool. (It’s a kiddie pool, but still.)”

Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow.