Analyzing the Oilers’ slow start and how they can turn it around

October 24, 2023

The Edmonton Oilers were an extremely popular pre-season Stanley Cup pick. Two weeks into the season, having lost four of their first five games, they look nothing like it.

To make matters worse for the Oilers, Connor McDavid will miss the next one to two weeks after suffering an upper-body injury over the weekend. Although it probably is too early to sound the alarm in Edmonton, there are reasons to be concerned.

Chief among them is the disappearance of the Oilers’ potent rush attack. They have yet to score a goal off the rush — the only team in the NHL without one so far. They finished second in the league last season with 79 rush goals in all situations and McDavid scored 27 of them — 12 more than the next closest player. Without McDavid for the next handful of games, the Oilers’ rush game is unlikely to rebound in the short term.

When the Oilers are on top of their game, they consistently generate scoring chances off controlled entries. That has not been the case through two weeks; Edmonton has converted 39 of its 172 carry-ins into scoring chances (22.7 per cent) — down from 27.4 per cent last season (4th). The cohesiveness that makes the Oilers so dangerous when attacking with speed has been absent.

The biggest question surrounding the Oilers was whether their goaltending would hold up over a full season. The early answer is no. The Oilers have allowed an extra 4.1 goals in all situations, which ranks 30th in the league ahead of only the Los Angeles Kings (5.38) and Carolina Hurricanes (9.35).

In particular, Stuart Skinner has struggled mightily following his breakout 2022-23 season. Skinner’s extra 5.4 goals allowed are second most and only Toronto’s Ilya Samsonov (5.86) has performed worse. (Jack Campbell has stopped an extra 1.31 goals — 21st out of 55 goaltenders who have played at least 60 minutes.)

Last season, the Oilers were 21st in goals saved above expected but had the offence to overcome it. The record-setting power play has experienced a slight drop in shot quality from 0.38 expected goals per two minutes last season to 0.32 this season. At 5-on-5, the Oilers’ shot quality is virtually the same — 2.74 expected goals per 60 last season versus 2.72 last season. Their overall true shooting percentage has fallen from a league-leading 6.7 per cent in 2022-23 to 4.5 per cent (21st) in 2023-24.

In basic terms, there is evidence that the Oilers’ offence eventually will find its footing, but how long can they wait? Edmonton already trail the undefeated Vegas Golden Knights by nine points in the Pacific Division. That gap could become insurmountable in short order.

All stats via Sportlogiq