Bidenomics is Smart Politics – Rob Horowitz – GoLocalProv

Tuesday, July 25, 2023

Rob Horowitz, MINDSETTER

Some political observers have questioned the political strategy behind President Biden’s decision to fully take responsibility and, from his vantage point, credit for the economy through branding his economic approach as “Bidenomics.” These observers assert that Americans currently have a negative view of the performance of the economy.   According to a recent Gallup Poll, for example, only about 1-in-5 Americans rate economic conditions in the nation as excellent or good, while more than 2-in-5 rate economic conditions as poor. They also point out that unlike other issues where people don’t have first-hand knowledge and, as a result, there is more room to alter opinions, on the economy, people’s impressions are based largely on what they experience directly in their own lives. 

While these are valid points, the unique set of factors, in this case, outweighs them, making “Bidenomics’ a good political bet.  First, the performance of the economy is far stronger than people perceive.  Americans’ perceptions of the economy are understandably still influenced by our first serious bout of inflation in 40 years.  Today, however, inflation is down to 3%; a precipitous drop from a high of more than 9% a year or so ago.   And it remains a good job market for workers, with unemployment staying under 4%,

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Further, in terms of Americans’ optimism about their own personal economic situations, perception is beginning to catch up to reality.  Consumer confidence is briskly returning. It is now at its highest level in nearly 2 years, increasing 13% over the past month and more than 41% since a year ago, according to the US Index of Consumer Sentiment provided by the University of Michigan.

Additionally, President Biden has a strong record of economic accomplishments. These include realizing the adoption of large-scale investments in infrastructure, computer chips, and renewable energy that as I wrote in a previous column are “boosting domestic manufacturing, creating skilled well-paying jobs that don’t require a college education and better positioning us to continue besting the rest of the global economic competition.”

Morgan Stanley’s chief economist asserted last week that these policies, even in their initial phase of implementation, are already having a strong positive impact of the economy. “President Joe Biden’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act has seeped into the domestic economy, “driving a boom in large-scale infrastructure,” wrote Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley, in a research note out late last week. Plus, she wrote, “manufacturing construction has shown broad strength,” Dow Jones reported.

This combination of objectively good national economic measures, the public’s increasing confidence in their own personal economic future, and a set of concrete accomplishments on the economy that the Biden Administration can use the bully pulpit of the presidency to tout create an unusual opportunity to improve Americans’ perceptions of the president’s performance on this issue.  This is especially the case, given that his current ratings on the economy are so anemic. Only about 1-in-3 (34%) Americans approve of President Biden’s performance on the economy, according to a recent The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll.   This is substantially below the president’s mediocre 41% overall approval rating in the same survey.

The strategy is not without its risks. There is still some possibility of a recession before the election. If that turns out to be the case, the negative ads write themselves. On the other hand, voters assign presidents accountability for the performance of the economy no matter how they choose to describe their role. As a result, the emphasis on ‘Bidenomics” would just make that politically costly development a bit more so.

As President Biden and other administration officials step up national and local media events designed to highlight new manufacturing plants opening, and various infrastructure projects commencing, all creating new jobs, expect the constant use of the term “Bidenomics,” backed up by advertising with sufficient repetition to ensure the message is driven home.

“Bidenomics” does not exactly roll off the tongue. It is smart politics, however.  It is likely to work as intended: at the margins, where elections are often won or lost. boosting Americans’ perceptions of the job President Biden is doing on the economy

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.

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