Explained: Israel-Palestine conflict and strained geopolitics of Middle East – India Today

The Israel-Palestine conflict is back in the news with the worst attack that Tel Aviv has faced since its creation, making the Gaza Strip a war zone.

On October 7, when Israelis were celebrating Simchat Torah, Hamas launched an unparalleled attack on Israel’s territory, breaching its land, water and air, firing a barrage of rockets, indulging in ground assault and taking hostages — both Israelis and foreign nationals.

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The attack brought back the grim memories of the Yom Kippur War in October,1973, in which a coalition of Arab states launched a surprise attack on Israel, with the aim of regaining territory lost in the 1967 Six-Day War. The 1973 attack took place on Yom Kippur, the holiest day in Judaism, and incidentally on the same day as the latest Hamas attack.

Catch the latest updates on Israel-Hamas war

The Israeli defense, renowned for its ‘Iron Dome System’ which has consistently intercepted over 90 per cent of rockets, found itself overwhelmed.

Not only did rockets rain from the sky, but the Mediterranean Sea, a natural barrier, was no longer safe. Hamas defied the long-standing naval blockade, landing on Israeli shores.

But the true shocker was Hamas’s audacious air strategy. Hamas militants took to the skies using powered hang-gliders, bypassing the air defenses and infiltrating Israel. The rapid assault resulted in heavy casualties.

The loss in Gaza has already started mounting. Airstrikes have been carried out on Hamas positions in Gaza, signaling the beginning of a full-blown conflict. But the true impact of such a war is seen on the civilians.

In Gaza, homes have been pulverised, there is a major blockade of food, water and electricity, and borders are shut. The Palestinians in Gaza have nowhere to go.

The bloodshed between Israelis and the Palestinians goes back a long time. Rising tensions in the West Bank had been hinting at a storm brewing.

The Israel-Palestine conflict is a complex and longstanding geopolitical issue that dates back over a century. The shrinking of Palestinian land is often a focal point in discussions about the conflict. Here’s a concise historical cartographic perspective:

Before World War I, the region known as Palestine was under Ottoman rule for centuries. After the war, the region came under British control due to the Sykes-Picot Agreement. During the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the Zionist movement gained momentum, advocating for the establishment of a Jewish homeland in Palestine.

UN Partition Plan (1947)

The United Nations proposed a partition plan in 1947 that would divide Palestine into Jewish and Arab states, with Jerusalem as an international city. Jewish leaders accepted the plan, while Arab leaders rejected it.

Creation of Israel and the Arab-Israeli War (1948)

In 1948, the State of Israel was declared. Immediately after, neighbouring Arab countries invaded Israel. The war ended in 1949 with the signing of the Armistice Agreement.

As a result, Israel expanded its territory beyond the UN’s proposed borders. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians fled or were expelled from their homes during the war, an event known as the Nakba.

Six-Day War (1967)

In 1967, Israel preemptively struck Egypt, leading to the Six-Day War with Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. Israel captured the Gaza Strip and the Sinai Peninsula from Egypt, the West Bank and East Jerusalem from Jordan, and the Golan Heights from Syria. The Sinai was later returned to Egypt in 1982 following the Camp David Accords.

Oslo Accords (1990s)

The Oslo Accords were a series of agreements between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO). The Accords led to the creation of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the recognition of Israel by the PLO. It also began the process of transferring certain territories in the West Bank and Gaza Strip to Palestinian control. However, final status issues like borders, refugees, and the status of Jerusalem were left unresolved.

2005 onwards

Although Israeli forces unilaterally withdrew from the Gaza Strip, abandoning their settlements, the UN still regards Gaza to be under Israeli occupation because the latter controls anything that goes in and out of the tiny strip – be it food, electricity, water or even human beings.

Over the years, there have been numerous clashes, intifadas (uprisings), and military operations between Hamas, which controls Gaza, and Israel.

In the West Bank where the Palestinian National Authority’s Mahmoud Abbas governs the area, the building of Israeli settlements there has been a significant point of contention. These settlements are considered illegal under international law, though Israel disputes this. The growth of these settlements has resulted in a patchwork of territories in the West Bank, complicating the establishment of a contiguous Palestinian state.

The territorial changes since 1948 have been significant and are central to contemporary discussions about potential solutions. But that’s not all.

Fast forward to the present day. Israel is a UN-recognised state whereas Palestinians continue to aspire to form a nation – seeking a two-state solution.

This year has witnessed increased tensions. In February 2023, Israel approved the legalisation of nine illegal settler outposts. This expansionist move was opposed even by the US.

According to Peace Now, 38 per cent of the area of the illegal West Bank outposts that the Israeli cabinet authorised on February 12 have an undetermined status.

There were numerous raids and bombings even in Palestinian refugee camps…

Confrontation around Al-Aqsa compound

The frequent violent confrontations at the Al-Aqsa Mosque and actions against Palestinian worshippers had been stoking the fires of resentment.

Now, let’s look at the old city of Jerusalem, which is considered a holy site for Jews, Muslims and Christians.

At the beginning of Ramadan, the Damascus entrance was barricaded with fences. In April, Israeli police killed a 26-year-old Palestinian near the Chain Gate leading into Al-Aqsa Mosque.

Clashes erupted after Israeli police entered the Al-Aqsa mosque to eject Palestinians who had barricaded themselves in the mosque overnight to pray. Some 400 Palestinians were arrested.

The Israeli raid on the mosque was condemned by Palestinians and Arab countries.

Israeli forces carried out a second expulsion raid on the Al-Aqsa Mosque. The United Nations Security Council called for a closed session to discuss the situation.

The last straw was when Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far right politician and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s alliance partner, visited the Temple Mount/Al-Aqsa compound together with his security secretary and police chief.

The visit was condemned by the Palestinians, Jordan and Egypt as a provocation and a violation of the status quo. The US later joined in the condemnation and criticised the inflammatory rhetoric.

Just north of the old city is Sheikh Jarrah, which was in the eye of a politico-security storm when Israeli police evicted Palestinian families and demolished their homes in the East Jerusalem neighbourhood owing to a case that had reached Israel’s Supreme Court — over who owns certain homes.

In May, a court ruling allowed the ousting of Palestinian families and in favour of an Israeli settlers association, leading to massive protests.

Matters escalated when Ben-Gvir, known for his provocative actions against Palestinians, set up a makeshift office next to the Salem home. Ben-Gvir claimed he set up his office in response to an alleged firebombing of a settler’s home in the neighbourhood last week.

Israel’s policies, especially the push for settlements in the West Bank, have been a contentious issue both domestically and internationally. Experts believe this attack could be a game-changer.

While Israel might come out on top militarily, the psychological impact and the shift in perception could have lasting repercussions.

Clouds on Saudi-Israel deal

Meanwhile, murmurs of a Saudi-Israeli deal brought its own set of tensions. The potential deal, seen by many as sidelining the Palestinian cause, added another layer to the complex geopolitics of the region. Israel’s leadership, particularly under Netanyahu, has been under scrutiny. Also, all other peace accords between Israel and other Arab nations under the Abraham Accords.

This also puts in jeopardy the recently signed India-Middle East-Europe Corridor or the IMEC initiative.

It didn’t help Israel’s cause when Netanyahu brandished a map of Israel at the UN General Assembly session, omitting all Palestinian territories, widely viewed as the most extreme in Israeli history. The Israeli premier presented a series of maps, including one that did not show the occupied West Bank, East Jerusalem or Gaza.

It was meant to illustrate how Israel now had friends in the region and how a normalisation deal with Saudi Arabia would expand that.

Current conflict

Coming back to Hamas and Gaza, 2.2 million Palestinians live in a geographical space of 365 square kilometres. While Israel claims that Hamas is in control of the Gaza Strip, their livelihood and means to live itself depend on the mercy of Israel.

Hamas had been warning Israeli forces against their actions in Al-Aqsa, Shaikh Jarrah and the refugee camps.

Then there were attacks on Al Jazeera and AP offices. The impact was to reduce flow of information from Gaza.

In May of 2022, Palestinian-American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh was killed while doing her job, reporting in the West Bank. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, her death was not a tragic one-time event, but actually part of a long, deadly pattern.

So what comes next? As of now, Israel’s partners, particularly the US, are sending all the military support to augment Israel’s military efforts against Hamas. But, somewhere down the line, there will have to be talks for a ceasefire as civilian casualties in Gaza start mounting. The UN, Egypt, Qatar have all been involved in mediating efforts. Turkey has also stepped in.

But, at the end of the day, Israel will have to take a call. Netanyahu is in an unenviable position of having the worst attack on Israel on his watch and if he doesn’t avenge this attack, it will mean his and his allies’ political demise.

As the dust settles, the region grapples with the aftermath, and the quest for peace becomes even more elusive.