If the Mets’ extended Pete Alonso, what could the deal look like?

ATLANTA — The biggest question for the New York Mets this offseason will be the long-term future of Pete Alonso.

Alonso is slated to become a free agent after next season, and the Mets listened on trade offers for him ahead of the deadline earlier this month. The first baseman has been a cornerstone of New York’s roster basically since the day he debuted in 2019; his next home run will give him his third 40-homer season with the club. Every other player in franchise history has combined for three 40-homer seasons.

The Mets could look again this winter to move Alonso, cashing in on their last chance to bring back a significant prospect package for the slugger that could improve their future outlook. Or they could try to extend Alonso, keeping him in Queens to improve their future outlook.

“I love representing this organization,” Alonso said Tuesday night, prompted by a question about Ken Rosenthal’s story for The Athletic that the Brewers believed they were close to a deal for Alonso at the deadline. “Being a Met is the only thing I know. … I don’t know what the future holds, but right now I’m a Met, and I love being a Met.”

Pete Alonso: “I love representing this organization. Being a Met is the only thing I know…. I don’t know what the future holds but right now I’m a Met and I love being a Met.”

(Alonso was asked about this @Ken_Rosenthal story: https://t.co/FSAk3e2jsv)

— Tim Britton (@TimBritton) August 23, 2023

Given all that, what could an extension look like for Alonso?

I’ve already done this exercise twice. In spring 2022, I estimated an extension for Alonso at eight years and $160 million, with a mutual option or opt-out after six years and $108 million. In spring 2023, I estimated an extension at nine years and $207 million. The cost goes up the longer you wait.

This season, Alonso is on pace for 3.7 wins above replacement. Let’s plug in that number for his 2023 season and look at how he compares to a few noteworthy players whose contracts might inform whatever negotiations transpire between the Mets and Alonso’s representatives.

Comp No. 1: The guy across the diamond

It’s been pretty easy to compare Alonso to Matt Olson ever since Atlanta traded for and extended the first baseman for eight years and $168 million ahead of last season. The two have offered pretty similar value on the field over the years, and Olson is nine months older and one year of service time ahead of Alonso.

The comparison isn’t as simple now as it was in the spring when Alonso still had two years of team control remaining (as Olson did when he was extended). As I explained in the spring, if he hadn’t been extended, Olson was set to make about $30 million over two years in arbitration before hitting free agency ahead of the 2024 season. Alonso was ahead of that pace in arbitration, on his way to making about $35 million over the final two years of club control.

An extension for Alonso ahead of next season would now include only one year of team control, likely in the range of $22 million, and thus would necessarily come at a higher average annual value than Olson’s deal with Atlanta. (Olson’s deal has an AAV of $21 million; it valued his free-agent years at about $23 million per season.)

If the Mets viewed Olson as an exact comp for Alonso, the deal to offer would be seven years and $160 million. However, it would be a significant surprise if Alonso seriously entertained that offer.

Comp No. 2: The puzzling former MVP

The other comp I used in the spring was the seven-year, $182 million deal signed in free agency by Kris Bryant with Colorado. Bryant’s production just before signing that deal falls below Alonso’s, and the 2016 NL MVP earned $26 million per season from the Rockies.

Why would Alonso’s camp balk at the Olson-ish offer listed above? Because they would surely love to use Bryant’s deal as a baseline for Alonso’s value in free agency. Bryant hit free agency ahead of his age-30 season, as Alonso is on pace to do. Alonso has been better than Bryant, so add an extra $2 million per season and plop it on top of the $22 million he’s slated to earn next year and you’ve got an eight-year deal worth $218 million.

Comp No. 3: The generation’s best

The Mets are leery of signing Alonso that deep into his 30s — through his age-36 season — and would prefer to keep the term shorter.

So the compromise spot for both teams might be looking at the five-year, $130 million contract Paul Goldschmidt signed with the Cardinals ahead of the 2019 season. (The deal didn’t kick in until the 2020 season.) Unlike with Bryant, Alonso’s camp probably can’t make a strong case that Alonso is better now than Goldschmidt was at that time.

But Goldschmidt’s deal came five years before this potential extension would, and inflation means it would be worth at least an extra $10 million now, making it value Goldschmidt at about $28 million per season in today’s money.

The Mets are wary of a long-term deal for Alonso that stretches deep into his 30s — the kind of deal that became a lot more popular in free agency last year. Perhaps the compromise is a deal that pays Alonso a significant average annual value but for a shorter term. They can just update the Goldschmidt deal to reflect inflation and roll with five years and $135 million (accounting again for the $22 million Alonso is likely to make through arbitration in 2024). Or they can go a bit longer at Bryant’s AAV and settle on six years and $152 million.

(Photo of Pete Alonso: Jeff Curry / USA Today)