Indo-Pacific Geopolitics Newsletter 06/19/2023 – Foreign Brief

Geopolitics Newsletter June 12 – 19 2023

US SECRETARY OF STATE ANTHONY BLINKEN MEETS WITH CHINESE COUNTERPART

Washington’s top diplomat, Blinken, touched down in Beijing this week for a high-stakes two-day meeting with his recently appointed Chinese counterpart, Qin Gang. A proposed earlier meeting in February was delayed amid controversy and mutual criticism in both capitals after a suspected Chinese spy balloon was shot down over US airspace.

It is the first visit to China by a US Secretary of State in five years. The rarity of the visit reflects the ongoing strained—bordering on hostile—relations between the two countries. The disagreements are many and varied, ranging from trade disputes over intellectual property to geostrategic disputes over Chinese intentions in the South China Sea and China’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Despite this, Washington has worked hard behind the scenes to reopen lines of communication that were closed by China in protest of their balloon being shot down by the US. Reopening dialogue and restoring a semblance of calm to the strained relations is the primary motivation for US President Joe Biden’s administration—to build a foundation for more substantive policy goals later in the year. China—still clearly annoyed by the balloon shootdown—has shown less enthusiasm for the trip and openly questions the utility of the visit. When Blinken arrived in Beijing, a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping was still uncertain, and the meeting with Qin Gang, while cordial, lacked any real substance.

Therefore, a major policy breakthrough is highly unlikely at this meeting. However, the restoration of formal diplomatic dialogue would be considered a win by the White House. Biden has long been keen to cool Sino-American tensions in a bid on enlisting Chinese support in pressuring Russia in the current war in Ukraine.  Read more [External]

Indo-Pacific

Japan passed new defense spending bill – Jun. 14

In a bid to counter China and notwithstanding a decades-old budget deficit, Japan passed legislation to raise Japanese Self Defense Forces funding this week. In doing so, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration continues the late Shinzo Abe’s hawkish approach to defense spending. It also fortifies Japan’s contribution to multilateral defense cooperation with the US and South Korea, in particular. Read more

Japanese Emperor Naruhito visited Indonesia – Jun. 15

The week-long trip commemorates 50 years of Japanese-ASEAN diplomatic ties with Indonesia currently hosting the bloc’s rotating presidency. The emperor’s state visit—his first since his 2019 ascension to Japan’s Chrysanthemum throne—reflects the importance Tokyo places on advancing its soft power in South-East Asia in the context of China’s influence in the region. Read more

Taiwan updated 2023 economic growth forecast – Jun. 15

Taiwan recorded a decrease in export momentum following the release of Taiwan’s Central Bank national economic growth forecast this week. This came on the back of flattening Chinese export trade—which fell by 4.5%–directly affecting the island’s largest semiconductor chip producer, TSMC. Read more

Japan hosted a multilateral meeting of security advisers – Jun. 18

US, Japanese, and South Korean security advisors met in Tokyo this week to discuss mutual Indo-Pacific security concerns including Chinese economic dependence, North Korean nuclear containment, and the China-Taiwan dispute. Read more

Chinese Premier Li Qiang visited Germany – Jun. 18

This is the first overseas trip for Premier Li—the official head of President Xi Jinping’s government, with a traditional focus on economic matters—since he came to office in March. It signals the importance Beijing places on German economic relations, especially in the context of an ongoing German investigation into Chinese tech firm, Huawei, and Beijing’s strategic goal of turning China into a high-tech economic powerhouse. Read more

Diplomacy

Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas visited Beijing – Jun. 13

Abbas visited Beijing this week where discussions centered on restoring peace talks between the Palestinian Authority and Israel—stalled since 2014. However, Israel has refused to entertain the idea of China facilitating any talks after China criticized it at the UN Security Council recently. Read more

Syria-EU Conference concluded in Brussels – Jun. 13

The annual EU-hosted conference facilitated EU, governmental and private donors who pledged $6 billion in monetary assistance to Syrian humanitarian efforts in the war-ravaged country.  Over 14 million people have fled their homes and 6 million remain displaced since civil war broke out in 2011. Read more

2023 St Petersburg International Economic Forum began – Jun. 14

The 25^th rendition of the forum took place amidst Russia´s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and represents Russia’s attempts to remain involved in the global economy despite Western sanctions. President Vladimir Putin used the occasion to criticize the West for its support of Ukraine’s counter-offensive. Read more

Zelenskyy met a delegation of African heads of state in Kyiv – Jun. 16

The meeting came after Russian and Ukrainian authorities agreed to host an African delegation to explore solutions to the Russia-Ukraine war. The delegation—the most prominent among them was South African President Cyril Ramaphosa—then went on to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin with a view to formulating a proposed peace plan for both warring leaders to consider. Read more.

Cuban Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz concluded his Russia trip – Jun. 17

Marrero participated in several meetings and then concluded his visit with a bilateral meeting with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. Both leaders seek to strengthen ties to alleviate the effect of Western sanctions upon their respective economies. Cuba seeks Russian assistance in developing infrastructure projects, while Russia seeks new markets for its products. Read more

National Security

NATO Air Defender Exercises began – Jun. 12

The 12-day exercise is the largest conducted by NATO since its foundation. Germany is hosting and leading the military air drills, showcasing its more assertive defense policy and desire to play a greater role in NATO. Read More

Germany unveiled national security strategy – Jun. 14

After several delays due to disagreements in the governing coalition, Germany unveiled its first-ever national security strategy paper. The strategy aims to determine the country´s foreign policy going forward, especially towards China and Russia. Read More [External]

Politics and Society

Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi died – Jun. 12

Berlusconi was a controversial but enduring figure in Italian politics, having twice served as prime minister. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he attracted further controversy for his longstanding friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin Read More. [External]

Former US President Donald Trump faced arraignment in federal court – Jun. 13

Trump handed himself in to authorities in his home state of Florida this week. He has been formally charged with 37 federal offenses relating to his alleged unauthorized retention and dissemination of highly classified documents from his presidency. He pleaded not guilty to all charges at his arraignment hearing. Read more

Mexico City mayor resigned in preparation for 2024 presidential bid – Jun. 16

Climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum resigned from the mayoralty this week to contest next year’s presidential elections and succeed incumbent president and fellow leftist MORENA party member, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. If successful, she will become Mexico’s first female President. Read more

THE WEEK AHEAD

International Bureau of Expositions general assembly opens in France – Jun. 20

Italy’s Rome, Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh, South Korea’s Busan, and Ukraine’s Odesa will bid to host the 2030 World Expo. Read more [External]

New round of Astana-format talks to begin in Kazakhstan – Jun. 20-21

A meeting of countries—Turkey, Russia, and Iran—which act as guarantors of the ceasefire in the Syrian Civil War since 2017 will take place. Read more [External]

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Contributions by: John Milo, Joseph Egidio, Will Wain-Williams, Cian Muenster