Indo-Pacific Geopolitics Newsletter 09/25/2023 – Foreign Brief

Geopolitics Newsletter September 18 – 25 2023

78th UN General Assembly sees high-stakes speeches, meetings

World leaders convened this week in New York for the 78th United Nations General Assembly. Though this year’s assembly was marked by several high-profile absences, the week-long event nevertheless consisted of noteworthy speeches and bilateral meetings.

US President Joe Biden played a central role at this year’s assembly, as the leaders of the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council—China, Russia, the UK and France—did not make it to New York. In Biden’s keynote speech to the assembly, he decried Russia’s “illegal conquest” of Ukraine, calling for continued solidarity with Ukraine as well as further progress on sustainability goals.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was present in New York, where he described the war in his country as an attack against the “international rules-based order” and warned that failing to prevent acts of aggression would only lead to more aggression in global affairs.

On Saturday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov addressed the Assembly and denounced Western powers for fueling international conflict and dividing the world into blocks to prevent the emergence of a multipolar world.

The UN Assembly also served as a platform for leaders from developing countries to promote their case against income inequality, as senior officials of the Group of 77 met to discuss reforming the international financial system amid growing global inequalities.

Climate action was a hot-button issue during the week-long event. Even before world leaders arrived at the UN headquarters, protesters took to the streets of New York to demand more climate action. The UN Climate Ambition Summit’s aim was to push the dialogue on ambitious emission goals and discuss policies that have already made significant progress.

Just as notable were the bilateral meetings taking place on the sideline of the General Assembly. President Ebrahim Raisi of Iran promised revenge on those who had ordered the killing of Iran’s top general, Qasem Soleimani in 2020. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with President Biden for the first time since taking office in late 2022 and announced progress in Israel’s efforts to establish diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia.

Indo-Pacific Geopolitics

Indian parliament begins a special session – Sept.18

India’s parliament began a special five-day session amidst rising political tensions. Opposition leader Sonia Gandhi criticized the government’s lack of transparency concerning the controversial Chief Election Commissioner and Other Commissioners Bill (CEC Bill). This bill challenges key parts of the Indian Constitution by redefining the power and position of election commissioners and will likely face significant resistance in parliament and broader Indian society. Read more.

Russian FM Lavrov met with Chinese FM Wang Yi – Sept. 18

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Moscow. The meeting focused on prospects for a resolution of the conflict in Ukraine and ensuring stability and security in the Asia-Pacific. As China is not expected to provide military support for Russia in the short term, Moscow has pursued closer military ties and weapons from partners such as Iran and North Korea. Read more

ASEAN concludes first non-combat naval exercises – Sept. 23

ASEAN concluded its first-ever non-combat naval exercise, focusing on humanitarian and maritime patrol collaboration among its 10 members. Originally set to take place within China’s controversial “nine-dash line”, the drill was moved to undisputed waters. While Indonesia wants to hold combat drills in the future, disagreements within ASEAN over the South China Sea and Beijing’s influence on member nations may complicate future drills. Read more.

Politics and Society

World Court hears Russian objections to genocide case in Ukraine – Sept. 18

The World Court heard objections from Russia to the International Court of Justice’s genocide case. Ukraine accused Russia of falsely using allegations of genocide against Russian-speaking populations in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine to justify its invasion. The US, Canada, Australia, and 27 European countries have filed motions to intervene as Western countries continue to pressure Moscow on human rights abuses. Read more

Iran and Iraq sign border deal requiring disarming Kurds – Sept. 19

The Iranian and Iraqi governments signed a deal to relocate and disarm Kurds living in the border region to reduce violence. Iran has consistently attacked Kurdish dissident groups on Iraqi soil that it considers dangerous, leading to growing tensions as the efforts to complete the resettlement continues. Read more 

Greek leftist Syriza party elects new president – Sept. 24

The Greek leftist Syriza party elected a new president today after former president Alexander Tsipras resigned over the party’s electoral defeat in July. The party presidential elections are considered an inflection point in Syriza’s political and ideological future. Read more

Diplomacy and Security

The EU’s trade chief met with his Chinese counterpart in Beijing – Sept. 19

EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis met with Chinese Vice-Premier and Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission Chair He Lifeng during a week-long visit to Beijing. Dombrovskis raised some concerns regarding trade with China, including China’s massive trade surplus, the country’s large subsidies for domestic industries, and its rapidly growing electric car exports to the EU. Though a breakthrough is not expected, both parties seek to enhance their trade and economic cooperation. Read more

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier concluded his visit to Italy – Sept. 22

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier concluded his visit to Italy, where he met with his counterpart, Sergio Mattarella. Discussions between the two presidents mainly focused on migration, as Germany recently announced that it would stop accepting migrants living in Italy. Immigration remains a contentious issue for European countries, and a consensus policy plan has yet to emerge. Read more

Finance, Economics, and Technology

6th Kenya Industrial International Expo (KIIE) held in Nairobi – Sept. 21-23

Chinese tech firms and Kenyan small businesses met in Nairobi over three days with the goal of promoting the Kenya-Chinese import and export sector. The Kenyan government hopes the KIIE can increase total Chinese foreign direct investment by as much as 10%, while the expo offers the CCP a chance to shore up its exports in Africa as its overall economy falters. However, it is unlikely that exports to Kenya and Africa will offset losses caused by domestic deflation and US-led economic decoupling. Read more

2023 Black and Caspian Freight Forum concluded – Sept. 21

This year’s forum included a tour of the port of Baku, the Azerbaijani capital, on day one and a full-day freight exhibition on day two. The Caspian region’s freight volumes have increased since Russia first invaded Ukraine, making it an increasingly important trade corridor. With European companies already using the freight way and neighboring Turkey improving its own rail infrastructure, it is likely that shipments, totaling 3.2 million tons in 2022, will continue to rise.  Read more

Environment

UN hosted Climate Ambition Summit – Sept. 20

Heads of state and non-state actors convened in New York on Wednesday to attend the Climate Ambition Summit. The summit comes at a critical juncture for climate action. Calls for increased multilateralism and renewed commitments are expected as states move towards climate resilience. Read more

High seas treaty presented for ratification at UN General Assembly – Sept. 20

On Monday, the UN General Assembly presented a new treaty that will create a legal framework to manage the conservation of ocean life and establish protected marine areas. While countries are expressing their intent to ratify the treaty, its provisions may be poorly enforced or disregarded domestically. Read more

The Week Ahead

10th China-EU High-Level Economic and Trade Dialogue will begin in Beijing – Sept. 25

China will host the 10th High-Level Economic and Trade Dialogue on Monday. The meeting, between senior EU Trade Commission Valdis Dombrovskis and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, aims to work through trade and economic policy disagreements as the EU seeks to de-risk strategic industries from China. Read more [EXTERNAL]

India to host 13th Indo-Pacific Armies Chiefs’ Conference – Sept. 25

India is set to host the two-day Indo-Pacific Armies Chiefs’ Conclave (IPACC), a multilateral forum of senior military leaders focused on strengthening regional peace and stability. Co-hosted by the US Army, this year’s forum focuses on military diplomacy, crisis mitigation, and interoperability. Read more [EXTERNAL]

International Atomic Energy Agency holds 67th General Conference – Sept. 25

The 67th General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meets from September 25-29 in Vienna, Austria. The agenda includes discussions on implementing safeguards for North Korean nuclear development and increasing nuclear security in Ukraine. Read more [EXTERNAL]

Contributions by: Tudor Boanda, Wescott Yeaw, Connor Elliott, Kyle Rose, and Andrew Alipui