Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco will hold a Diamondbacks-specific chat on 11-2-23 at 2:00 pm Central. Click here to leave a question in advance.

The Diamondbacks overcame a midseason slump to play their way into the National League’s final playoff spot. They followed up an 84-78 regular season showing with a surprising run. That ended in disappointing fashion, as the Snakes dropped a five-game World Series to the Rangers. They’re now on to the offseason as they take their first steps in trying to get back to the Fall Classic.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Corbin Carroll, LF: $105MM through 2030 (including buyout of ’31 club option)
• Ketel Marte, 2B: $62MM through 2027 (including buyout of ’28 club option)
• Merrill Kelly, RHP: $9MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 club option)
• Miguel Castro, RHP: $5MM through 2024*
• Scott McGough, RHP: $3.75MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 mutual option)
• Jace Peterson, 3B: $3MM through 2024 (A’s paying down $2MM of Peterson’s $5MM salary)

* Castro’s vesting option is conditional on passing end-of-season physical

Option Decisions

• Team and RHP Mark Melancon hold $5MM mutual option ($2MM buyout)

Additional Financial Commitments

2024 financial commitments: $51.3MM
Total future commitments: $204.05MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Adams, Lewis, Mantiply

Free Agents

Arizona faces a couple immediate questions with the turnaround to the offseason. They’ll make the easy decision to buy out their end of a $5MM mutual option on Mark Melancon, who missed the entire season after a Spring Training shoulder strain. He’ll collect a $2MM buyout to conclude a free agent deal that didn’t work out.

There’s another question the front office will need to decide within the first five days of the offseason: whether to issue a qualifying offer to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. The righty-hitting left fielder had a strong season in the desert. The third piece in the Daulton Varsho/Gabriel Moreno trade, Gurriel turned in a .261/.309/.463 batting line with a career-high 24 home runs over 592 plate appearances. He paired that with an elite +14 Defensive Runs Saved in 778 left field innings, although Statcast’s defensive metric pegged him closer to league average.

On a bigger-spending team, there’d be an argument for a Gurriel QO. Baseball Reference pegged his contributions around three wins above replacement this past season, while he typically falls in the 2-3 WAR range. He’s a solid everyday left fielder. Yet the risk of Gurriel accepting an approximate $20.5MM salary is probably too high for a franchise that opened the 2023 campaign with a player payroll around $116MM — the #21 figure in the majors, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

If the Snakes made the QO, there’s a strong chance Gurriel would accept. If he’s not attached to draft compensation, he could find a three- or four-year deal at a lesser annual salary on the open market. If the D-Backs don’t want to match that price, they’ll likely look for external corner outfield help. In addition to Gurriel, deadline acquisition Tommy Pham is headed to free agency.

Arizona likely has two outfield spots secured. Corbin Carroll turned in a Rookie of the Year season in the first year of his eight-year extension. He’s a true franchise building block. Alek Thomas had a mediocre regular season offensively, reaching base at a meager .273 clip. He hit well in October and brings plus center field defense (error in last night’s game notwithstanding) and baserunning to the table. Between his secondary skills and strong prospect reputation, he’ll probably get the first look in center field.

The rest of the outfield is uncertain. Jake McCarthy had a disappointing follow-up to his surprisingly strong rookie year. While Dominic Fletcher hit well in a limited sample, he’s a 26-year-old with 28 major league games under his belt. Neither former 7th overall pick Pavin Smith nor 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis made much of an impact. They could each be let go. Jorge Barrosa is on the 40-man roster but has yet to make his MLB debut.

Arizona isn’t going to be in the Cody Bellinger mix. Any other free agent outfielder could fit within their payroll window. Including projected salaries for their group of arbitration-eligible players, the Snakes have around $86MM in commitments for next year. That leaves around $30MM before reaching this past season’s Opening Day mark. They’re around $50MM shy of the franchise’s approximate $131MM record. While they’re six years removed from that level, it stands to reason they could push near or past those heights after hosting seven playoff games and with a goal of backing up this year’s success.

Aside from Bellinger, the top free agent outfielder is Teoscar Hernández. He could require draft pick forfeiture as a potential QO recipient and might land a four-year deal. Gurriel, Jorge Soler and KBO star Jung Hoo Lee are among the next tier down. On the trade front, players like Alex Verdugo (projected $9.2MM salary), Max Kepler ($10MM) and Anthony Santander (projected at $12.7MM) may be available as rental options.

Arizona has a strong infield in place. Christian Walker is an underrated contributor at first base. A $12.7MM projection for his final year of arbitration isn’t insignificant, but there’s enough payroll room that the D-Backs can accommodate it to retain a Gold Glove defender with 35-homer potential. Ketel Marte had another great season at second base.

The left side of the infield is a little less settled, though it’s not for lack of options. Arizona released longtime shortstop Nick Ahmed in September, a move made in tandem with the promotion of top prospect Jordan Lawlar. The latter didn’t get much action in the postseason, with Arizona relying on a collection of Geraldo Perdomo, Emmanuel Rivera and Evan Longoria between shortstop and third base.

Perdomo’s offense fell off in the second half, but he had an All-Star first couple months and a strong postseason. Neither Rivera nor Jace Peterson offer much offensively. Longoria is a free agent, while Lawlar only has 32 games above Double-A.

There’s enough uncertainty at third base that the front office could add a veteran. Perhaps that’s a reunion with Longoria should he continue playing. Justin Turner is likely to decline a player option with the Red Sox. While he’s not an everyday third baseman at this stage of his career, he could see some action there while logging the bulk of the designated hitter reps.

If Lawlar takes the third base job (or plays shortstop, pushing Perdomo to the hot corner), a Longoria or Turner type could move fully to DH. Old friend J.D. Martinez obviously isn’t an option at third base, but he’s a possibility if the Snakes are content to bring in a DH-only bat to replace the offense with Gurriel, Longoria and Pham hitting free agency.

Arizona has one of the best young catchers in the game with Moreno under club control through 2028. Bringing in a low-cost backup who pushes José Herrera down the depth chart is a possibility. Tucker Barnhart, Martín Maldonado and Eric Haase are free agents.

While there are a few questions on the position player side, the biggest issue for the front office is filling the back of the rotation. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly make for a strong top two. Brandon Pfaadt had a tough regular season as a rookie before an impressive run in the playoffs. Neither Ryne Nelson nor Tommy Henry (the latter of whom missed the second half with an elbow injury) has established himself as more than a depth starter. Slade Cecconi has made only four MLB starts.

Adding one or two pitchers to fill out the rotation should be the top priority for GM Mike Hazen and his staff. The D-Backs aren’t likely to meet a potential $200MM+ asking price on Blake Snell or NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. There’s enough spending room they could be a factor on anyone else in the class, although a run at Aaron Nola or Jordan Montgomery would require easily their biggest investment since their surprising $206.5MM strike for Zack Greinke eight years ago.

Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez could be available for similar outlays to the $85MM guarantee the Snakes awarded Madison Bumgarner in 2019. Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen (a reported deadline target of Arizona’s this past summer) are among the middle tier veterans. Lucas Giolito is a volatile option after a rough second half, while Frankie Montas and Luis Severino are pure rebound candidates.

On the trade front, Shane Bieber, Nick Pivetta and Adrian Houser could be on the move as they’re a year from free agency. Cal Quantrill, José Urquidy (with whom pitching coach Brent Strom is familiar from his time with the Astros) and Spencer Turnbull are multi-year trade possibilities.

In recent offseasons, the bullpen has been a focus for Arizona. While that might not be as strong a priority after the deadline acquisition of Paul Sewald, there’s still room to deepen the setup corps. Kevin Ginkel has emerged as a quality eighth inning arm. Andrew Saalfrank flashed impressive stuff as a rookie. Miguel Castro, Scott McGough and Kyle Nelson have middle relief spots but are coming off middling seasons. That’s also true of 2022 All-Star Joe Mantiply, who dropped behind Saalfrank as the top lefty option in the playoffs.

It’s hard to envision Arizona making a serious push for Josh Hader given their needs on the rotation front. Reynaldo López and Jordan Hicks are free agent setup types who’ll command multi-year deals. If the D-Backs want to bring in a left-hander, Matt Moore and Wandy Peralta are among the options.

Aside from supplementary acquisitions, the D-Backs could devote some of their long-term payroll room to extension negotiations. Arizona holds two more seasons of arbitration control on Gallen, who is on track to hit free agency before his age-30 campaign. He’d surely beat the five years and $64.5MM that Kyle Freeland received in the same service class. Logan Webb landed a five-year, $90MM guarantee in an extension with the Giants that went into effect beginning in his 4-5 service year, setting a potential benchmark for Gallen’s camp.

Moreno is the other top extension possibility. He has more MLB success than Keibert Ruiz did when he inked an eight-year, $50MM deal with the Nationals in the same service bracket. It’s possible a guarantee in that range that only buys out two or three free agent years — as opposed to the potential five seasons covered by the Ruiz extension — is mutually agreeable.

While it remains to be seen if the Snakes can get a long-term deal done with any of their players, one extension seems quite likely to be hammered out. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote last month the D-Backs were likely to award an extension to manager Torey Lovullo. Arizona already signed Hazen through 2028. A similar term for the seventh-year skipper — who is currently under contract through next season — could be on the docket.

This year didn’t conclude with the championship that everyone in the Chase Field offices was seeking. Their relatively surprising playoff performance reinforced that they’ve moved into a win-now window. They’ll face challenges from their bigger-spending competitors in the NL West. The D-Backs are no longer upstarts. Beginning today, they set out to prove they have staying power.