Pirates Sign No. 1 Overall Pick Paul Skenes

The Pirates announced Tuesday that they’ve officially signed right-hander Paul Skenes, whom they selected with the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft. The now-former Louisiana State University ace will receive a $9.2MM signing bonus, Jim Callis of MLB.com reports. It’s the largest draft bonus ever issued under the current slotting system in Major League Baseball. Full slot value for the top overall selection was $9,721,000.

Skenes, 21, spent this year dominating for LSU. He made 19 starts for the Tigers with a 1.69 ERA in 122 2/3 innings. He struck out 209 of the 462 batters he faced, an incredible 45.2% rate, while walking just 20 for a 4.3% rate in that department.

Coming into the draft, he was a consensus top three pick by all of the major outlets alongside his LSU teammate Dylan Crews. ESPN, FanGraphs and Keith Law of The Athletic gave Skenes the #3 slot, Baseball America had him at #2, while MLB.com had him in the very top spot. MLB Pipeline puts an 80-grade on his fastball, the top mark possible on the 20-80 scale, noting that he averaged 98 mph this year while getting as high as 102. They also heap praise on his slider and compliment his changeup as well. He is described as a “classic” starter in that he is 6’6″ and 235 pounds, with the profile at MLB.com describing him as the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg in 2009.

Even the profiles that didn’t have Skenes in the #1 slot admitted that there was a case to have done so, though the greater injury risk for pitchers played a factor in bumping him to #2 or #3. All observers consider him to be a potential future ace some think he is talented enough to pitch in the big leagues today. That’s not to say the Pirates will consider such a path, since pitchers are often shut down in their draft year and Skenes already logged a significant workload this year.

How the Bucs will proceed with Skenes will be a fascinating development to watch this winter and into next year, given that some evaluators think he’s ready for the big leagues. The Pirates showed some signs of life earlier this year and had some hope of emerging from their rebuilding phase, but they’ve faded in the past couple of months and seem likely to be out of contention this year. But if they think they are ready to make a leap in 2024, they will have to come up with a plan for where Skenes fits in there.

The club has been aggressively promoting its prospects this year, with Henry Davis, Endy Rodríguez, Jared Triolo, Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero all called up in recent weeks, but there’s plenty of room in the rotation. Mitch Keller will undoubtedly be in the mix as he’s in his second straight solid season. Johan Oviedo is posting passable results behind him. 43-year-old Rich Hill could be traded this summer but is an impending free agent even if he doesn’t get moved. Other options like Osvaldo Bido, Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras have shown some encouraging signs at times but are still question marks right now, as in Quinn Priester, who was just promoted to make his debut in recent days. Mike Burrows was considered one of the club’s better pitching prospects coming into the year but required Tommy John surgery in April.

Baseball America has already updated its top 100 prospects lists after the draft and has Skenes #5 across the entire league. Skenes was the first #1 pick in MLB’s new lottery era, which was just implemented for this draft. The Pirates got the #1 selection despite the Nationals and A’s having slightly worse records in 2022.