The biggest question facing Mercedes right now

Things are never dull in Formula 1.

This was supposed to be a quiet week off, following a back-to-back in Austria and Britain, and ahead of another back-to-back in Hungary and the Netherlands. But a thunderbolt from the clouds came down on Monday, with the shocking news that Daniel Ricciardo was coming back to the grid.

After just ten races, AlphaTauri and Red Bull had seen enough from Nyck de Vries. The rookie was out, and Ricciardo was in, on loan to AlphaTauri starting with the Hungarian Grand Prix.

Still, with F1 on a bye week following the British Grand Prix it is time to take stock of just where each of the ten teams are ahead of Budapest. Working through the field from the bottom of the Constructors’ standings to the top, what is the biggest question facing each team right now?

We have finally reached the front row of our virtual walk through the grid, bringing us to Mercedes. The once-dominant force in F1 is still looking at the rear wing of Red Bull. So where do they go from here, and how can they get back to the front?

Will they finally solve their car, or will that answer come in 2024?

(Sorry, that photo of Pep and Toto is too good not to use.)

Stop me if you have heard this before.

Mercedes has a problem with their car.

Last year was all about “porpoising,” as to use Toto Wolff’s own words, the team “got the physics wrong” in designing the W13. For many, the culprit was the team’s “zeropod” design, and the team even had concerns that it would pose a risk to drivers on the track.

That led to an incredible moment from the last season of Drive to Survive, when Wolff raised his concerns with the other team principals and Red Bull’s Christian Horner told him there was a simple fix.

Change your “bleepin’” car:

Mercedes finally did change the car, but it took until the European stretch of the calendar for the team to come up with some answers. That did lead to a late-season surge from George Russell and Lewis Hamilton, as the team scored their first double-podium finish of the year in Belgium, followed by another double-podium result in the Dutch Grand Prix the next week out.

Eventually the Silver Arrows scored their first — and only — win of the season in the Brazilian Grand Prix, when Russell won his first F1 race.

While Mercedes was 66 points behind Ferrari for second place after the Austrian Grand Prix, the Silver Arrows closed to within 19 points of the Scuderia ahead of the season finale. While Ferrari ultimately held onto second, it was a strong charge from Mercedes.

And it offered hope that 2023 could be different.

Instead, there have been more struggles, and while Mercedes has caught Aston Martin and slid into second place in the Constructors’ standings, they are still trying to figure out the W14. The zeropod design was shelved ahead of the Monaco Grand Prix, but the team is still looking for the complete solution to their woes with, as Wolff says “Diva 2.0.”

And, frankly, Wolff comparing the W14 to the W13 in this way has to be worrying for Mercedes fans.

“I thought at Silverstone, based on our historic performance, was the best shot but it wasn’t,” said Wolff to assembled media at Silverstone. “So maybe there’s another track where we have the best shot, because the characteristics of the car have changed.”

“I always believe that we can beat Max with a good group of people, best drivers, we just have to give them a car that is more predictable and not the ‘Diva 2.0’. And much more complicated than the first one.”

Again, Wolff calling the W14 “more complicated” than the W13 is again a worrying sign.

The team will continue to tinker, but the complete overhaul may be a year away.

“We had the sidepod concept and the bodywork in the tunnel very early on already to see which avenues it would open up and how much it would add to performance. And the relative loss of the downforce, the way we measure it, was substantial,” added Wolff. So it’s not something that we wanted to follow up on in the year. We changed our design direction, I think we have a great group of aerodynamics led by James [Allison] and I’m sure that it will be a consideration seeing the step they made.”

“Do we believe that we have upgrades in there that are going to fundamentally change the car? I don’t believe so, but we have a few small steps that are to come,” concluded the Mercedes boss.

Mercedes wants to put Hamilton and Russell in a car that can win a championship. But that might not come until next season.