The mirage of stability: How Hamas attack has changed Middle East geopolitics – Firstpost
The dissonance between the optimistic statement made by Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, a week ago, and the dire reality portrayed by the devastating attack on Israel by Hamas on 7 October vividly illustrates the fragility and volatility that pervades the peace — or semblance thereof — in the Middle East. Sullivan’s previous assessment that the region was “quieter” was not just abruptly shattered, but it also underscored how beneath the surface of seeming tranquility, bubbling tensions and grievances persist.
The ruthless assault, where Hamas not only launched a barrage of rockets but also infiltrated Israeli territories, engaging in direct combats at multiple locations and resulting in a tragic loss of lives and numerous hostages, stands as a stark contradiction to any narrative of sustained peace and stability in the region.
The tragic incidents of that day will invariably rekindle the historical, deeply-rooted animosities, not only between Israelis and Palestinians but potentially also among their respective allies, further polarising an already intensely divided region. On a global stage, this could precipitate a chain of responses, whereby nations are compelled to reassess their alliances, policies, and strategies concerning the Middle East.
A resurgence of such violent conflicts may revive the diplomatically challenging debate regarding support and alliances in the conflict, not to mention redirecting global resources and attention towards crisis management and potential peacekeeping efforts in the region. The juxtaposition of a sanguine proclamation of peace and the stark, harsh outbreak of violence thereby not only poses a chilling reminder of the delicacy of peace in the Middle East but also casts a shadow on the reliability and stability of international alliances and strategies forged in such ostensibly tranquil times.
This event and its aftermath will most likely prompt nations worldwide to tread more cautiously, revisiting their diplomatic strategies and policies regarding the Middle East, and being ever mindful of the dormant yet potent volatility that characterizes the region’s geopolitics.
The short-term impacts extend far beyond the immediate vicinity of the conflict. World leaders and international bodies have strongly condemned the act of violence, and this unified stance against terrorism sets a global precedent. The apparent escalation in conflict leads to potential ripple effects across the Middle East, not just limiting to Israel and Palestine, but drawing in a multitude of actors.
Furthermore, the attacks manage to shake the perceived invulnerability of Israel’s security apparatus, prompting nations worldwide to scrutinise their own defence mechanisms against such unforeseen and coordinated terrorist activities. The brutal attacks on Israel signified a stark intelligence lapse, catching Israeli and US intelligence unawares and revealing their failure to anticipate such a meticulously planned and comprehensive offensive by Hamas. Recognised experts and former officials have underscored this as a “colossal failure”, spotlighting grave deficiencies in intelligence systems that resulted in unforeseen and impactful assaults. This multifaceted assault via air, land, and sea not only blindsided Israel but also exposed critical weaknesses within its military intelligence.
Echoing poignant memories of the Yom Kippur War, this intelligence fiasco underscores the deep and enduring impact of such breakdowns. Historically, Israelis, with their skillful surveillance of Palestinian activities, had managed to ward off major threats from Hamas, especially with the installation of the extensive Gaza border wall. Operating under the belief that Hamas, seemingly engaged in sustaining a long-term ceasefire that ostensibly served both parties, would not risk initiating a substantial conflict, Israel was lulled into a deceptive sense of security, further bolstered by the steady economic and tax contributions from the daily influx of Palestinian workers from Gaza.
However, this calculated deception by Hamas not only shattered this confidence but also instigated shockwaves reminiscent of the disbelief following 9/11, raising profound questions about how such a diminutive terrorist outfit could outsmart the might of the Israeli intelligence and defense establishments. This unsettling reality, while yet to be fully deciphered, appears to have been partially facilitated by a rooted belief in the deterrent power of sheer force and a disregard for lingering, unresolved issues.
In the longer term, these events may serve to reconfigure geopolitical landscapes and allegiances. Nations globally might find themselves reevaluating their affiliations and strategies regarding the Israel-Palestine dichotomy, further intensifying global polarization and alliances. Thus, these brutal attacks represent a substantial setback to the peace process within the region, likely deterring further negotiations and hardening stances on both sides. These attacks should be seen against the backdrop of a significant and historic rapprochement unfolding between Israel and the Arab world. The Abraham Accords, which were established in 2020, laid the groundwork for the normalisation of relations between Israel and various Arab nations.
Joe Biden and Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman were substantially progressing in discussions concerning the full normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The potential diplomatic alignment between Saudi Arabia and Israel would have represented a strategic development in Middle East politics. It would have reflected a significant pivot away from historically hostile relations towards cooperative engagement, mainly driven by shared concerns regarding regional stability and mutual economic benefits. The US has been encouraging Arab nations to establish or enhance diplomatic and economic ties with Israel as a means to foster stability in the region, counterbalance Iranian influence, and facilitate prosperous coexistence among historically conflicting parties. However, these attacks would significantly act as an impediment to these talks.
These attacks will lead to strained relations among the US, Israel, and Iran, with Israel accusing Iran of empowering Hamas. Consequently, the US might experience heightened pressure to vehemently respond to Iran through various means, including diplomatic, economic, or military actions, to appease and back its ally, thereby further deteriorating the already precarious US-Iran relations. This sequence of events may escalate tensions and hinder diplomatic relations and peace endeavors in the delicate geopolitical scenario involving the US, Israel, and Iran.
The potential reassessment of defence strategies by Israel in the face of these attacks may ripple across the globe, influencing worldwide security policies and military strategies. Moreover, economic sectors across the world, especially those closely tied to the stability of the Middle East, might face significant volatility, impacting global economic stability.
Amidst the rising smoke and settling debris in Israel, the future of peace within the Middle East teeters precariously on an unseen fulcrum. The recent, startling violence augments not only local tensions but also global apprehensions regarding the sustainability of diplomatic breakthroughs and accords within this historically contentious region. The stark variance between anticipations of peace and the brutal, manifested realities compels nations to navigate the shifting sands of geopolitical alliances and enmities with heightened caution and recalibrated strategies.
The unseen undercurrents of distrust, retaliation, and historically rooted grievances are now starkly visible, signalling that the path toward a durable peace may be even more labyrinthine and fractured than previously acknowledged. Henceforth, the spectre of this unexpected conflict will inevitably loom over future dialogues and negotiations, casting a long shadow on efforts to stitch together a semblance of stability and cooperative peace in the ensuing years.
The author is OSD, Research, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. He tweets @adityasinha004. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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