What’s up with Jonathan Taylor? Can I drop Rhamondre Stevenson? 8 important fantasy football questions after Week 5

This series answers numerous fantasy-centric issues following Week 5’s games (usually looking ahead and ‘what does this mean?’). Like “Can I drop Rhamondre Stevenson?” “Why are you telling me to hold onto Dak Prescott?” and more. It uses advanced metrics, analytics, game tape reviews, statistical trends, and myriad other elements. It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article and reviewed in greater detail at TheFootballScientist.com.

The EPA metrics detailed below are per TruMedia. Other advanced metrics outside of my unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are in full PPR environments. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the end of the Sunday night games.

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Quarterbacks

1. Is it time to drop or bench Dak Prescott?

When reviewing the potential fantasy value for Prescott, it’s good to keep something in mind that was posted in Prescott’s review in my preseason 2023 quarterback rankings. It said, “[Aaron] Rodgers did finish first or second in QB points seven times under [Mike] McCarthy, but four of those point totals would not have ranked in the Top 5 in 2022 and a fifth would have ranked fourth. It shows the quarterback scoring landscape has changed and the McCarthy offense may no longer be able to support a Top 4 QB1.”

The McCarthy offense doesn’t even seem to be able to support a Top 12 fantasy quarterback so far in 2023, as Prescott’s 11.79 PPG average ranks 24th at this position and he has posted 15+ points in only a single game. To be fair, some of Prescott’s issues have to do with the Cowboys winning big over New York in Week 1 and having a road game against an overpowering San Francisco defense in Week 5, but even if one takes those weeks out of the equation, Prescott only moves up to 18th in QB scoring.

The problem isn’t a single area but is rather a combination of a production decline in three areas: short passing (throws 10 or fewer yards downfield), vertical passing (aerials traveling 11+ yards), and rushing. Here are the year-to-year comparisons for Prescott.

• Short pass 2022: 9.14 (ninth) 2023: 6.56 (23rd)
• Vertical pass 2022: 5.56 (14th) 2023: 4.33 (23rd)
• Rush 2022: 1.85 (15th) 2023: 0.90 (26th)

The good news is none of these declines is extreme and that means that it might not take too much to push them back to their former solid starter levels.

Now let’s add in some more good news. Dallas has seven matchups on its remaining 2023 fantasy schedule against teams that have high-powered offenses, with two of these occurring in the next three weeks (Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6 and Philadelphia in Week 9) and five of these occurring from Weeks 13-17 (Seattle, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Miami, and Detroit).

The current McCarthy low-octane approach just isn’t going to cut it in those games and that means a more aggressive play-calling approach that should generate higher point totals for Prescott. That upside is more than enough of a reason to keep him on a roster if possible and if he is available as a trade for low option, it’s a deal worth making even if only to spot start Prescott versus some of these favorable matchups.

Running backs

2. What should fantasy managers make of the Zack Moss/Jonathan Taylor situation?

The general consensus headed into Sunday’s game against the Titans is that Taylor would be on some sort of snap count that would probably turn this into a platoon setup for a week.

That certainly isn’t what happened, as evidenced by the Colts Week 5 running back snap counts.

Moss completely dominated the snap counts in every area and carried that over to his production, as Moss gained 195 scrimmage yards on 25 touches, including a 56-yard touchdown run and a 26-yard reception.

It is almost inconceivable that Indianapolis will keep Taylor at this snap count level from here on out, but there is also no way that Shane Steichen will keep Moss on the bench as long as he is producing to anywhere near this level.

That will likely result in the platoon setup that lowers Taylor’s value, and that is compounded by the Colts facing red-rated rush defenses in five of their next seven games.

This doesn’t mean to give up on Taylor, because if/when Moss starts to come back to earth, Taylor will be the bell cow once again — but it does say that wise fantasy managers will lower their expectations to RB2/flex value for Taylor over the next few weeks.

3. Is Rhamondre Stevenson a drop candidate?

It sure seems that way, as over the past three weeks Stevenson has generated only 15.6 PPR points and has averaged 3.3 or fewer yards per carry in every game this season. The Patriots also look like a team that could be going through the motions and that type of mentality can greatly reduce fantasy value for even the most talented players.

Having noted the negatives, let’s also note that the past two weeks have seen New England face two of the best rush defenses in the NFL. That won’t be the case for the rest of the season, as the Patriots have seven green-rated rush defense matchups over the next ten games and don’t have a red-rated rush defense on the remaining schedule.

Belichick is still a master at going after opponent’s weakness and will thus lean as heavily on the ground game as he can in that span. That potential upside is more than enough reason to continue rostering Stevenson or placing a trade for low offer for him.

4. Is Dalvin Cook a drop candidate?

This is a case where the snap counts pretty much tell the story.

Cook was brought in to help the offense while Breece Hall got back up to full speed. Now that this has happened, and now that Michael Carter has seemingly resumed his role as the pass catching back in this offense, Cook’s value has all but disappeared, sans injury. He can be safely dropped in leagues as long as fantasy managers are getting a quality prospect to replace him.

Wide receivers/tight ends

5. Is it time to trade high on DJ Moore?

The trade value for Moore will never be higher due to his posting 49 PPR points against Washington in the Week 5 Thursday night game, but let’s not forget that Moore came into this contest having scored 27.1 PPR points in Week 4 and ranking 10th in WR PPR PPG in Weeks 2-4.

That WR1-caliber scoring trend can continue, as Moore has green-rated cornerbacks on his schedule in eight of Chicago’s next nine games. Unless someone makes a monster trade offer, Moore’s fantasy managers should stay put, as he is someone who may be one of the cornerstones of a 2023 fantasy football title.

6. Is Tutu Atwell the odd man out now that Cooper Kupp has returned?

It was no surprise to see a Rams wide receiver lose targets now that Kupp has come back from injury, but Atwell’s fantasy managers still had to be disappointed that he posted only two receptions for nine yards against Philadelphia and one of those catches being a touchdown was the only thing that kept Atwell from posting an abysmal point total.

The biggest problem is on short passes, as Atwell had only two targets at that depth level. That placed him tied for fourth on the club in that category, behind Kupp (9), Puka Nacua (5), and Tyler Higbee (3) and tied with Kyren Williams. This was in spite of Atwell running 22 short routes, which was only one behind the team lead in that metric, so he may be dropping down far on the Rams short pass target priority list.

There was a potential saving grace in that Atwell saw three of the Rams’ 13 vertical targets, so he is still being incorporated into that part of the game plan. This is not insignificant, as 29.8 of Atwell’s 50.3 PPR points in Weeks 1-4 occurred at that depth level.

This means Atwell should still be rostered, as Sean McVay is continuing to include him in game plans but think of him as a spot start WR3/flex candidate rather than a weekly go-to.

7. Is Jonnu Smith a TE1?

Fantasy managers frequently have trouble getting consistent production out of the tight end position, but that seems to be even more of an issue this year, given that some of the typical impact players haven’t been holding their own.

Smith offers a potential high-floor alternative for managers needing an upgrade here. He was a TE1 in an Arthur Smith offense in 2020 and is trending towards another TE1-caliber campaign in 2023, ranking tenth in TE PPR points since Week 2.

The Falcons don’t have a particularly favorable tight end coverage schedule, but they do face only one red-rated matchup over the next five weeks. The presence of Kyle Pitts will also draw much of that coverage attention, as Smith is more of the counterpuncher at this position.

Add this up and Smith should be rostered in a lot more than 9.6 percent of leagues.

8. Has Dalton Schultz earned his way back into TE1 contention?

Schultz didn’t play anywhere close to his 2022 Dallas level in his first three weeks with the Texans, as he posted a total of 11.7 PPR points in those games despite being in an offense that played quite well in those contests.

That downward trend seems to be coming to an end, as Schultz has posted 32.7 PPR points over the past two weeks and was targeted ten times against Atlanta in Week 5.

The schedule isn’t very favorable for Schultz over the next few weeks, but that changes in Week 10, as he is due to face four green-rated tight end coverage matchups in Weeks 10-14, so there is long term value here as well.

(Top photo: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports)