Why Saudi-hosted peace talks matter for Ukraine – POLITICO

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Hello from Brussels, where the rain keeps falling, eurocrats have escaped for their annual August sojourns and a sighting of Hollywood star Russell Crowe on Brussels’ medieval Grand Place has livened up this sleepy summer season.

I’m Suzanne Lynch, chief Brussels correspondent, bringing you today’s edition of Global Insider from the heart of the EU quarter.

The White House may be planning an August recess travel blitz, involving President Joe Biden and cabinet members criss-crossing the United States to promote their policies — not so in Brussels, where “out of office” notifications have kicked in. POLITICO’s Gregorio Sorgi has the lowdown on which EU Commissioners have been deemed designated survivors and given the questionable honor of running the show for the coming weeks.

JEDDAH-BOUND: Preparations are underway for a two-day meeting in Jeddah this weekend, as officials from dozens of countries attempt to kick-start Ukraine peace talks. The gathering is a follow-up to June’s meeting in Copenhagen which brought representatives together from across the world — including the so-called “Global South” — in an effort to hash out a peace plan.

Guest-list: Among those invited are Brazil, India, Turkey and Japan, in addition to a host of European countries and the United States. But the big question is whether China shows up. “It matters what China does. Most of the participants last time around regretted that China did not participate,” said one senior European official involved in preparations for the meeting.

Red Sea rumblings: Riyadh’s decision to host the talks is significant, and follows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s surprise stop-off in Jeddah en route to the G7 summit in May when he addressed the Arab League and met Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman Securing global support for Ukraine’s 10-point peace plan has been a constant challenge for Kyiv, since Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country, and Ukrainian officials have welcomed Saudi’s decision to host the gathering.

Saudi calculation: Saudi Arabia has walked a fine line since the start of Putin’s full-scale invasion, seeking to broker a deal to repatriate Ukrainian children taken to Russia, for example, while remaining in direct contact with Moscow. MBS spoke with Putin last month following the Saudi decision to cut oil production (both are members of the OPEC+ oil-exporting group of countries). But the Saudis also maintain strong ties with the U.S., with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan meeting MBS in Jeddah last week.

Deliverables: The top target for officials is to agree on a joint statement at the end of this weekend’s meeting — an outcome that eluded negotiators at the inaugural gathering in Copenhagen last month. Ukraine also sees the meeting as a possible precursor for a long-touted peace summit. Though one official told POLITICO that a meeting at heads of state level is possible on the fringes of September’s U.N. General Assembly or at the G-20 in India, a more structured peace summit later in the year is also under discussion.

MIGRATION POLITICS: Migration is emerging as a key campaign issue ahead of a series of elections across Europe, including in Poland and Slovakia, where right-wing parties are blasting Brussels for not managing the challenge correctly. Central to the EU’s strategy is a deal signed with Tunisia last month to stem the arrival of migrants, in exchange for cash.

UN Warning: U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk says it’s essential that the Tunisia agreement includes human rights safeguards. The former Austrian diplomat, who took up the global human rights job last October, was speaking to POLITICO on his first official visit to Brussels.

Background: Human rights groups have slammed the agreement struck by Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, Italian leader Giorgia Meloni and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in July to stem migrant departures from the African country to Europe.

Amnesty International described it as “ill-judged” and a sign that the EU is accepting “increasingly repressive behavior by Tunisia’s president and government.” Türk is more measured — but says it’s all about the implementation of the plan. “There are some references to international law and respect for international law, but we need to make sure that in the implementation, that this becomes more granular, more detailed,” he said. Human rights impact assessments should be completed at each stage, he added.

Rwanda deal: On the U.K.’s recent proposal to deport asylum-seekers to Rwanda, however, Türk is unequivocal. “These types of deals are not in line with international refugee law and international and rights law. That’s clear,” he said.

Gentle reminder: Türk, who holds one of the world’s top human rights posts, also offered the EU some perspective on migratory trends.

“Europe has accepted over 4 million refugees from Ukraine and from many other parts of the world. It’s very important that they do it and we’re very grateful for it. At the same time, the biggest migration issues are not in Europe. I think this also has to be emphasized. The biggest challenge is in different countries in Africa, in Asia, the Middle East and in Latin America.”

MANILA IN FOCUS: The Philippines is feeling the love these days following the election of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., after six years of Rodrigo Duterte’s authoritarian rule. European Commission president von der Leyen was the latest world leader to pay homage this week in her first visit to the country as Commission president (fun fact: two of her daughters previously worked as volunteers in the Philippines)

Strategic partnership: The EU, eager to tap into the market of 100 million people, announced the relaunch of talks on a free trade agreement which stalled during the Duterte reign. But von der Leyen also zoned in on the Philippines’ geo-political importance during the visit, issuing a barely veiled warning about the country’s trade relationship with China. Noting that the Philippines exports 90 percent of its nickel to China, she said: “This can change.”

“We cannot choose our neighbors, but we can choose who we do business with, and on what terms,” she said. Ouch.

China threat: Von der Leyen also used a speech to the Philippines Business Forum to slam Beijing for its increasingly militant stance in the Indo-Pacific — and its position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China, as a member of the U.N. Security Council, “has yet to assume fully its responsibility under the U.N. Charter to uphold the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine,” she said. In contrast, von der Leyen was full of praise for the Philippines for condemning Russia’s actions in a series of U.N. votes.

Context: The EU’s outreach comes on the back of overtures from the Biden administration, with Manila granting the United States access to more of its bases, as the U.S. beefs up its presence in Southeast Asia. The two countries held their largest ever joint military exercises earlier this year.

TRUMP TROUBLES’ MOUNT: Former U.S. President Donald Trump is facing his most serious legal challenge yet, after he was charged with conspiring to seize a second term after losing the 2020 presidential election. Trump, who is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination ahead of next year’s election, was defiant. In a statement, he accused “shadowy Deep State actors” of being engaged in a “politically-charged witch hunt intended to destroy our 2024 campaign and the greatest grassroots movement in history.” Our POLITICO colleagues break down the key revelations — and notable omissions — in his third indictment in a year.

NIGER LATEST: Evacuation flights carrying hundreds of citizens touched down in Paris and Rome in the early hours of Wednesday morning as countries scramble to get their citizens out of Niger following last week’s coup. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to ousted President Mohamed Bazoum overnight. The conflict threatens to escalate, with neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, which are ruled by military junta, warning that they will defend Niger if Bazoum is reinstated.

MOVES

— BERLIN’S MAN IN PARIS: Stephan Steinlein has been named as the new German ambassador to Paris. Steinlein is returning to his roots — he held a similar post for a few weeks in 1990, serving as the last ambassador of the communist German Democratic Republic in Paris.

—WELCOME TO NEW YORK: Australia has a new Permanent Representative to the United Nations — James Martin Larsen.

BRAIN FOOD

‘No, really. Rishi Sunak is a right-winger’ The Economist’s Bagehot columnist on why the British Prime Minister is the most right-wing Conservative leader of his generation

EU Confidential podcast: The latest episode of POLITICO’s weekly podcast from Brussels analyzes the outcome of Spain’s recent elections, and hears from the son of murdered journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia about how new EU proposals on media freedom don’t go far enough.

Macron’s man in Brussels: Nicholas Vinocur and I analyze how France’s EU Commissioner Thierry Breton is amassing power within the European Commission and has his eye on the institution’s top job — a move that could ring alarm bells in Washington.

Thanks to editor Tim Ross and producer Sophie Gardner.

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