Philippines: Prisoner of its geography

There is an ongoing debate in the Philippines about the wisdom of the existence of the EDCA in this country. There are those who are saying that this agreement has made the Philippines a vassal of the United States. It is critical that we review this bases agreement in the context of real politik and geopolitics.

There is no question that the American desire for bases here is motivated purely by self-interest or the interest of the United States and not for any love of the Philippines. It is important to know that the role of foreign affairs is to advance and protect the interests of one’s country.

The primary motive for the Philippines granting access to EDCA bases is likewise purely for self-interest. This serves as protection from Chinese aggression, which is evidenced by the forced acquisition of Philippine territory by China. It is just by coincidence that the United States and the Philippines are both alarmed at the aggression of China and therefore, both countries are seeking to contain these expansionist moves. The unfortunate situation of the Philippines is primarily due to its geographical location.

This has placed the country in a precarious geopolitical position. Geopolitics is defined as “the struggle over the control of geographical entities with an international and global dimension, and the use of such geographical entities for political advantage.”

The noted author of the book “The Revenge of Geography,” Robert D. Kaplan, wrote: “Indeed, the South China Sea with the Strait of Malacca unlocks the Indian Ocean for China, the same way control over the Caribbean unlocked the Pacific for America at the time of the building of the Panama Canal.” In the same book, he contends that throughout history, powerful nations have tried to gain control of adjacent seas. Greece sought to control the Aegean, Rome the Mediterranean, the United States the Caribbean.

According to this logic, China will seek to control the South China Sea (SCS). This is the pattern for all imperialist powers. China may seek to dominate the SCS in the same way that the Americans tried to dominate the Caribbean. The affected neighbors of China like the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam will necessarily resist, in the same way that Cuba resisted American expansion.

It is this fear of Chinese aggression and expansion and not love of America that is driving Vietnam and the Philippines into an alliance with the United States. This explains, for example, why Vietnam, who had a violent war with America only a few decades ago, has become an American ally.

If the Philippines was located in the Caribbean, then we would probably be looking for an alliance with Cuba to stop American aggression. If our country was located in the South Atlantic or South Pacific, we would not have any imperial power as a neighbor and that would make it easy for us to remain neutral in a great power rivalry.

In the book, “Prisoners of Geography” by Tim Marshall, he writes: “The land in which we live always shaped us. It has shaped the wars, the power and social development of the peoples that now inhabit every part of the earth. Technology may seem to overcome the distances between us in both mental and physical space, but it is easy to forget that the land where we live, work and raise our children is hugely important and that the choice of those who lead the eight billion inhabitants of this planet will to some degree always be shaped by the rivers, mountains, deserts, lakes and seas that constrain us all – as they always have.”

Geopolitics looks at the ways in which international affairs are heavily influenced by geographical factors which include not only the physical landscape but also climate, demographics, culture and access to natural resources.

Within this context, the tensions between China the superpower and the neighboring countries are understandable. China and Japan have conflicting claims of sovereignty to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands; China and Vietnam over the Paracel Islands and China and the Philippines over the Spratly Islands. The single most potentially explosive flashpoint is Taiwan, a de facto independent country which China claims is an integral part of the mainland.

This area is actually the most explosive and has the highest potential for conflict arising from accidental clashes.

China has now produced maps that show that almost the whole of the SCS is their territory. This is a statement of intent and it is backed by aggressive naval patrols and official statements. It is clear that China has no intention of negotiating over territory they claim as their own. The Philippines, on the other hand, has ownership claim on part of the SCS and is supported by international law.

It can be said that the Philippines, in terms of its foreign policy, has become a prisoner of its geography.

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