Thailand 2023 election: Pheu Thai, Move Forward face military power

Polling widely suggests that the opposition, led by Pheu Thai, Thaksin’s party, and Move Forward, a liberal youth-oriented party that has questioned the sweeping power of Thailand’s monarchy, will dominate when voters brave boiling temperatures to cast their ballots. Less certain is what happens after voting ends, said analysts, diplomats and activists in Thailand.

Fears of election rigging have intensified in recent days. Watchdog groups reported that the 2019 election, the first after a 2014 coup, was “heavily tilted” toward the ruling government led by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, and critics warn that it could again find ways of manipulating the results in its favor.

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The military, which gave itself the power to appoint the 250 members of the Senate, is already going into polling day with an express advantage. Parliament will select the prime minister in a joint session of the Senate and House of Representatives, and senators, which include Prayuth’s brother and close aides, are expected to provide overwhelming support for the military, as they did in 2019. This means the opposition needs to sweep the elections for the 500-member House of Representatives to have a shot at forming a government.

Even if the opposition is able to make up the votes, however, the military may not cede control, analysts say.

The emergence of Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s daughter, has invigorated the family’s base in the rural north but also instilled suspicion that she might be a conduit for the return of Thaksin, who faces charges of corruption in Thailand. In recent weeks, Thaksin has said repeatedly that he would like to come home. “It’s been almost 17 years since I’ve been separated from my family,” he wrote in a tweet Tuesday. “I am already old.”

Paetongtarn has little political experience, and the prospect of her becoming prime minister is provoking “a deeply adverse reaction among the conservatives,” said Kasit Piromya, a former foreign minister who has been critical of both Prayuth and Thaksin. The rising popularity of Pita Limjaroenrat, the charismatic leader of Move Forward who has drawn massive crowds in recent days, has also unnerved the conservative establishment, which is staunchly loyal to the monarchy.

“This won’t be a straightforward election,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of political science at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. “The question is how crooked can it be? Well, we don’t know.”

Already, parties have accused one another of vote-buying, and the Electoral Commission, appointed by pro-military lawmakers, has changed the format of ballots in ways that activists say will be confusing for voters. Allegations of voting irregularities spread over the weekend as early voting began, and by Monday, a hashtag questioning the purpose of the commission was among the top trending topics on Thai social media.

Depending on how much the will of the people is “subverted,” there could be unrest, said Thitinan. In 2020, when the Constitutional Court disbanded an earlier incarnation of the Move Forward party, tens of thousands of protesters flooded the streets of Bangkok calling for democratic reform. The military government retaliated with water cannons and mass arrests.

“If the result comes from free and fair elections, people will accept it,” said Patsaravalee Thanakijvibulphol, a pro-democracy student activist who was among those detained by authorities during the 2020 protests. “If there’s trickery, it’ll be up to people to respond.”

A spokesman for Prayuth’s party Ruam Thai Sang Chart did not respond to requests for comment. Prayuth, a retired Army general and conservative hard-liner, last year survived a court challenge alleging he had violated an eight-year term limit for prime ministers. While it’s “understandable” that some people might think he has outstayed his welcome, “there aren’t that many who are against me,” he said in a recent television interview.

Narumon Pinyosinwat, treasurer of Palungpracharat, another pro-military party, said it’s not possible for any party “to do something against the rules and regulations,” and rejected claims that the ruling parties were prepared to tamper with election results. Regardless of how people vote, Narumon said, Palungpracharat “will respect the choice of people of Thailand.”

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The military has come under criticism in recent years for its handling of the coronavirus pandemic and for the country’s flagging economic growth. Voters want change, said Paul Chambers, an expert in civil-military relations at Naresuan University in northern Thailand.

Leaders of both Pheu Thai and Move Forward have cast themselves as “voices of renewal,” he said. They’ve both publicly vowed not to form a coalition with any leaders involved in the last coup, including Prayuth and deputy prime minister Prawit Wongsuwon, and to amend the electoral system if elected.

“At the moment, what we have is the strongest opposition,” said Move Forward deputy leader Sirikanya Tansakul. If the two parties win by the margins they’re expected to, it would be “shameful” for the senators to override the will of the people, she added. “Together, we can send [the military leaders] home very soon,” Sirikanya said. “I don’t think they’ll have any role to play in Thai politics any more.”

Chambers said the exuberance within the opposition was palpable. But, he warned, there are still many ways in which the conservative establishment “can deprive them of any chance of governing.”

In 2019, the election commission took more than six weeks to release final results, tabulating the votes using a complex formula criticized by opposition leaders. The eventual outcome, which diverged from preliminary results, showed that Pheu Thai won the most seats but fell short of the majority needed to govern.

“While the ECT did demonstrate good management of the voting process, this was effectively negated by the body’s poor handling of the tabulation of results,” the Asian Network for Free Elections, a nonpolitical watchdog group concluded in a post-election report.

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This year, pro-democracy groups say they’ve been alarmed by the number of reported irregularities during early voting, including incomplete and mislabeled ballots. Election commission chairman Itthiporn Boonprakong acknowledged in a news conference Tuesday that there had been mistakes but said they were being rectified. He rejected accusations that the commission had any intentions of undermining the electoral process.

Many youth activists who marched for democracy in 2020 and 2021 have joined a coalition, organized under the banner “Protect Our Vote,” to recruit 100,000 independent poll watchers. With days left before polling day, the coalition was still about two-thirds short of their goal, leaders said.

Jatupat Boonpattararaksa, another activist involved in the effort, said the election commission is under more scrutiny now than ever before — but this was no guarantee against fraud. “The problem with the establishment,” said Jatupat, “is they don’t play by the rules.”